alan greenspan will be retiring soon (end of year), after 18 years. i wonder what effect this may have on various aspects of the economy. it really has been an amazingly stable economic period, relatively speaking, and at least a good chunk of this had been shepherded along by this man. something to keep in mind.
not “identity” - “intelligent design” :
rough notes on the creationism / intelligent design “debate”:
- a nyt opinion: Editorial Observer: Grasping the Depth of Time as a First Step in Understanding Evolution
- not just the immense time scale, but the even more immense parallelism at play in evolution. the opportunities for complexity to arise are enormous - !
- maybe consider the issues not only from an a priori standpoint, but also a posteriori: assume we accept or reject such-and-such, what are the positive / negative consequences ? for creationism, it would seem to be relevant only to ethical and moral agendas, not scientific or technological ones. for evolution, there are of course technical implications, but also ethical ones and historical ones. it is an uneven field - and that's good.
- popperian definition of science (often boiled down to “falsifiability” ) may be problematic, as may be any definition, but imperfection doesn't justify outright rejection
- define “designer”. define “intelligence”.
- i've heard one i.d. supporter say something to the effect that just as cells or other parts of our bodies are not aware of the greater complexity realities (?) of our bodies, we won't necessarily be aware of something of greater complexity than ourselves of which we are a a part. then he goes on to apply something resembling proof by induction to say that ultimately there is a universal complexity, and then declares this possibility as suggestive of i.d. counterpoint: nested hierarchies of complexities have nothing to do with intention or intelligence, and the perception of emergent properties at various levels is dependent on the observer, not representative of any absoulute “truth”.
- it seems this need by religious folks to dispute science - and so many other things - really represents an insecurity, rather than an unshakeable faith. well, of course.
- in some sense perhaps the i.d. people are less naive (or ingenuous) in their estimation of the import of evolution than is the science community, at the same time that their naivete with respect to faith is exposed. the converse is also true of scientists. forests and trees, i guess.
- what are some other alternatives to explaining the origins of current state of affairs, scientific or religious ? all of science is extremely consistent internally, and i.d. stands against the body of evidence and theories accumulated by all of science, not just evolution. evolution does not exist in some ideological vacuum. this is the same criteria that any competing “theory” would face, regardless of underlying motivation. so i.d. is faced with integrating itself into the existing body of scientific knowledge - or with supplanting it. even the catholic church's huge body of (cosmological) theology couldn't ultimately stand up to one man with a piece of ground glass, and i.d. is nowhere near achieving that magntitude of a body of knowledge.
- what of godelian incompleteness ?
- this does not mean there are not important psycho-social issues to resolve. but they should be addressed directly and explicitly for what they are, not through reactionary ideological proxies.
- argue the reverse: it's the lack of complexity that is the hallmark of “designed” objects. we cannot create life. in fact, we recognize the work of “intelligence” by the presence of geometric or other relatively simple patterns. one might argue that higher and higher intelligences can create even more complexity, but i think you can always trump this by pointing out a complexity beyond their ability to create. it's the difference between finite and infinite. no “god” could do better than evolution (“better”?). and even then, we are only perceiving an infinitesimal portion of all possible existing patterns, let alone all past and future ones.
- and also a reminder-to-self here to consider anti-entropic processes.
iraq, aka “new texas” ?
there must be more of these...
in other news, it seems the military's force transformation initiative is directed at creating a global protection racket. read between the lines of “Base closings hint at new air strategy”. you don't think ? then how will american taxpayers be able to continue to foot the bill for protecting the increasingly free market places in the rest of the world ? the other economies get the benefits, but none of the costs, of that protection. that's not what i call “competition”. they also get the benefits of free markets without the costs of many services, rights and privileges that we take for granted here.
it's already established national policy to use military force abroad to “preserve” national security - and that includes economic security. that typically means strong-arming regions into giving us what we want at otherwise unavailable terms. don't want to play that game with us ? no problem, we'll withdraw our “protection”. even better, we'll throw our support behind groups that oppose you.
all old news. the new part is that now it seems we will be doing the dirty work directly.
just an unbalanced note on one aspect of the issues here to remind me of some of the dynamics at play.
that was pretty funny. i tried to take it seriously, but the laughs burst out anyway. i couldn't help keeping up a running commentary along the lines of the two moose in the comment track of "brother bear".
one thing i was having fun with is also a pet peeve of mine:
i think the confusion over pronunciation of "uranus" came from some early laziness. it was originally "yU-rAn'-us" (as in "yU-rAn'-E-um"), where caps indicate the long vowel sound, not the more recent "yur-A'-nus", which is where the problem started. the latest "yur'-uh-nus" is just silly, replacing one mispronunciation with some politically correct even wronger one. the movie uses "yur-ah'-nus". wikipedia:Uranus has a little discussion on this.
in any case, why did all this recent immaturity crop up over "anus" ? never had that problem growing up, no one ever even smirked, it never occurred to us. it's a fairly recent phenomena (i never heard the alternate pronunciation until the late 90's). friggin' regressive / repressive culture, is what it is. i wonder if it has anything to do with the coming to power of the prudish right-wingers ? and you know, it doesn't matter how you pronounce it, if i want to giggle over the sophomoric interpretation of the word, i can and will. and i will have a good time doing it.
so until we start fueling nuclear reactors with "yur'-uh-nee'-um", let's forget all this foolishness and go back to using "yU-rAn'-us", before i kick someone in "yur-A'-nus".
“due to current sensitivities and adult content, viewer discretion is advised”
the disclaimer for tonight's network tv broadcast of “beautiful mind”.
give - me - a - break.
double category entry here, and an unusual flag. this one isn't about politics, but is still has social impact.
i was in a local drugstore during a recent heatwave, and the power went out. instead of servicing the customers already in the store before shutting down, they kicked everyone out then and there. which kinda sucked since i was just finishing up, and shopping time isn't necessarily trivial. right down the drain. and why ? the computers were down. if they are that critical to a business, a proper operating plan should at least include enough backup power (from ups, generator, whatever) to process some expected number of shoppers. i suppose they may also have been concerned about theft & security. again, where's the backup power ?
i saw an article about the recent virus outbreak where the people just sat and twiddled their thumbs when the computers went down. didn't matter what type of business it was, that was the result. news agencies, customs, retailers, ... all were basically taken completely offline and all operations halted.
you'd think some lessons would have been learned after the wtc incident. you'd think the blackouts a couple years back would have taught lessons as well. well, the lessons were there, but the prospective students were all skipping class.
so what's the flag ? not just the inadequate technical infrastructure, which is bad enough. that's solvable, for a price. if our society is that heavily dependent on electronic devices then it is in taxpayers' interest to have a much more robust systems. if that means mini-generating stations on every block, or some other localized backup, so be it. or must we legislate that every independent business facility have their own backup systems ? this is already done with critical services such as fire, police and medical.
of course, that's just the power supply side of things. computing resources are affected by many things, like viruses. and to a society whose lifeblood seems to be information, computing needs the same robustness as does power, perhaps more so.
but it's not necessarily the vulnerable computing itself which needs to be directly addressed. people and businesses have forgotten how to operate without computing machinery. for years, unreliable computing was a concern that was addressed by having manual failover processes. that required some duplication of effort and recordkeeping, but was seen as necessary given the uncertainties.
now it seems we accept the inherent reliabilities in return for hyper-streamlining of nearly all processes. i can understand the difficulties involved when the computing based changes have resulted in qualitatively different approaches, or even entirely new businesses. but for retail, customs and even news ? the manual failover processes are obvious and simple. will things be as efficient ? no. but a complete stoppage is much less efficient than even that.
apparently the business lost - to a company, or even a nation's economy - is seen as an acceptable risk in terms of cost / benefit analysis. on the other hand, a lot of people in the front lines are just looking for any excuse not to work for a little bit. computer down ? no problem, i needed the breather anyway [wink]. nothing new there.
i don't know if this nearly complete dependence on computers is a great success story, or a horrible tragedy waiting to happen. or maybe it's already happened.
teeny tiny bunny (palm sized)
everything's gone brown around here, little rain and hot days are the worst i've seen in seven summers here. so i'm trying to rescue a small ornamental tree in front (i think it's too little too late), and as i'm examining the water flow around the tree, one underfoot lump didn't feel right - no wonder ! poor little guy (girl?), got tromped on by an ogre. he seemed to have come through the experience all right, just seeming a tiny bit shaken and mostly sleepy, not to mention a little bit wet. good thing i wasn't mowing the lawn.
i just went out and checked; apparently i flooded a nest - he's got two siblings sticking their noses out of the water filled fluff- & moss-lined hole. i hope they aren't standing on top of any brothers or sisters. and where's mom ?
i'll let the bunnies fend for themselves. they can move out of the water if they want. the tree, on the other hand... well, you know.